Har Obama redan vunnit presidentvalet 2012?

Följer man en del av bevakningen av det amerikanska presidentvalet i svensk media (och bloggar) skulle man kunna tro att valet redan är avgjort. ”Obama leder för stort.” ”Forskning visar att den som leder på det här datumet vinner alltid” osv. Stämmer det? Nej. Jag tycker Nate Silver förklarar läget bra här:

I would see a little more justification for that if Mr. Obama had continued to hold at something like a six-point lead in the national race after this convention, as seemed possible when he was getting some very strong numbers in the polls early last week. To a slightly lesser extent, I’d see a justification for it if Mr. Obama’s numbers hold at their present levels for another two weeks or so.

For the time being, however, Mr. Obama’s bounce seems to have tapered off a bit, and it may taper off somewhat further, so I’m not sure there’s all that much news. Mr. Romney has gone from a modest underdog in the presidential race to a modestly larger underdog, which isn’t good news for him. However, it isn’t a particularly sudden or night-and-day difference. Whatever problems he is having convincing voters about his candidacy, they are probably mostly the same ones that he has had all year. But the race is not over, by any means.