Douglas L. Hoffman lost a wild special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional district last November as the Conservative Party’s nominee, after the moderate Republican, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out, and endorsed the eventual victor, Bill Owens, a Democrat.
Tonight, Mr. Hoffman lost the Republican primary in the 23rd district: it has been called for his opponent Matthew Doheny, who leads 53-47 so far. But Mr. Hoffman will again appear on the Conservative Party’s ballot line, having been the lone candidate vying for that distinction. That moves Mr. Owens, whom we had pegged as a 70 percent favorite in a two-way race against Mr. Hoffman, into a potentially more robust position. (fivethirtyeight.com)